Early Warning System — Luxury Markets

Buyers Are in Control of the Luxury Market — A Double Red Flag, with a Market Strength of 2.6 out of 10

34% of the homes listed in the past 30 days are under contract, so buyers are buying homes that are priced and prepared well. 11% of them went under in the last 14 days, so the market is starting to deteriorate.

24%

Total Under ContractBuyer’s

34%

Went Under in 30 Days

11%

Went Under in 14 Days

Pulling Back|15 of 18 luxury markets flying a warning flag

Every luxury market is scored out of 10 on three things: how many listings sell rather than coming off unsold, how much of the standing inventory is under contract, and how long homes are taking to go under. The flag follows that score — double green above 7.4, green 6.1 to 7.4, yellow 4.0 to 6.0, red 3.0 to 3.9, double red below 3.0. The contract columns beside each market cover the last 30 days and the last 14, and the arrow compares the two. Both are explained at the bottom of this page.

Double Green 0 markets Green 0 markets Yellow 3 markets Red Flag 5 markets Double Red 10 markets

2 Improving|16 Pulling Back|0 No Read

0% Seller’s|83% Buyer’s|17% Neutral

MarketTotalUnder ContractContractsLast 30 DaysContractsLast 14 DaysMarketMoving

Yellow — Proceed with Care

Reston 49%4 of 7 75% 25% Aldie 47%10 of 18 62% 25% Chantilly 53%6 of 9 0% 0%

Red Flag — Hold

Round Hill 28%2 of 5 100% 100% Purcellville 23%4 of 16 33% 0% Arlington 24%10 of 36 29% 6% Centreville 34%4 of 10 25% 0% Fairfax 20%4 of 17 22% 0%

Double Red — Do Not Launch

Ashburn* 30%13 of 32 64% 18% Vienna 27%9 of 29 56% 22% Haymarket 29%10 of 27 45% 18% Warrenton 28%5 of 16 43% 29% Oakton 22%3 of 12 40% 20% Winchester 9%2 of 19 40% 20% Fairfax Station 16%2 of 9 25% 0% Great Falls 18%12 of 52 25% 6% Leesburg* 24%16 of 57 24% 5% McLean 13%10 of 64 5% 0%

How the Flag Is Set

What the Numbers Measure

One question, asked of two groups of listings: of the homes that came on the market, how many have already found a buyer?

The Flag — 30 Days

Sold or Under Contract

Homes listed 8 to 38 days ago that are sold, pending or under contract ÷ all homes listed in that window

Nothing listed in the last week counts. A home needs time on the market before its silence means anything, and counting day-old listings as failures would drag every market down.

Why it matters: This is the plainest test a seller can apply. Out of everyone who listed last month in this market, what share already has a contract? If two out of three are still sitting, that is what a new listing is joining. The flag follows this number and nothing else.

Over 50% Double green. Launch.

41–50% Green. Clear to launch.

31–40% Yellow. Proceed with care.

21–30% Red. Hold.

20% or under Double red. Do not launch.

Momentum — 14 Days

The Newest Listings

The same count, run on homes listed 8 to 22 days ago

These listings have had half as long to find a buyer, so they are held to half the 30 day rate. Clear that bar and the arrow is green; fall short and it is red.

Why it matters: The 30 day number tells you where the market has been. This one tells you where it is heading. A market can post a respectable month and still be going quiet right now — the newest listings are the first place that shows up, and they show up here weeks before the monthly figure moves.

Why both. The flag is the ground a seller is standing on today. The arrow is the direction it is moving. A green flag with a red arrow is a market that has been good and is cooling — list now. A red flag with a green arrow is a market coming back — waiting may be worth it. Neither number alone tells a seller when to launch.